IRAN WILL ESCALATE - AND WILL ACCELERATE THE DECLINE OF THE USA

Warwick Powell lays down the reality of the Iran war. We have a politically and strategically illiterate US leadership of zealots sucked into a fight it cannot win. Prior to this erupting I had hypothesised this possibility and concluded that a war in Iran would be a Russian or Chinese General's wet dream....no matter what the USA does, it will be weakened even if (and it is unlikely) it could win the war.

'The open question, therefore, is temporal and I restate it: can material reality force rationality faster than zealotry can prolong the interval? If the blockade’s economic ripple effects, the visible drawdown of precision stocks, and the sustained Iranian counter-pressure concentrate minds in Washington toward a grand bargain, the United States may yet extract a face-saving exit before the trap fully snaps shut. If hubris and shame aversion prevail, the decent interval becomes a longer, costlier demonstration of why Pape’s warning has proven durable across decades of conflict. Either way, the thermoeconomic verdict is already in: Iran cannot be coerced on American terms without costs the American-led system itself cannot bear indefinitely. The only variable left is how much pain American elites are willing to impose on their own society — and those of allies, to the extent that they even feature in Belting thinking — before acknowledging the limits that geography, industrial capacity and physics have already imposed.




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