COPING WITH DEFEAT IN UKRAINE....

Aurelien cogitates as to the approach 'Europe' should take when (and if) there is a defeat for them in Ukraine.

I hope his assumption is correct. However, a defeat in Ukraine will be a massive defeat for NATO (and the USA), and so I don't think we can take it for granted. 

Russia has handled the war well up til now but the provocations of NATO European powers is indicative of both their desperation and (perhaps) their desire to embalk on open war in the belief that, maybe, they can prevail. As of today it has been reported that there is increasing annoyance in Russia at the attitude of the USA which has depicted it as a 'Paper Tiger' and reports of successful Ukrainian strikes into Russia. There is some scope for Russia to escalate (a decapitation strategy), but they mustn't go over the top and need to avoid going nuclear.

Assuming this doesn't happen, Aurelien offers some sound advice - but in the end what it underlines ought to be obvious. It is the end of 'western' global domination.

'The largest constraint by far, though, is the lack of any real security policy concept. Now it’s important to understand that “security” in this sense means much more than “defence,” let alone “military.” It is a policy for ensuring the security of the country, by whatever means seem best. But expressions of blind rage, spite and hostility towards Russia do not count as security policy, and for as long as those continue, Europe will be suspended in an intellectual void. It will take time for the present crew of political shysters and psychotic managerialists to be washed out of the system, but it has to happen. If that means a Russian strike on European territory in retaliation for some piece of nonsense launched from there, then I fear that is what we are going to get. And then, surveying the wreckage with incredulity, a new set of leaders, with luck wiser or at least less delusional than their predecessors, will have to start effectively from zero.....If you accept then, that Europe (with or without the US) has no serious chance of facing up to Russia militarily, and that in any case the strategic interests of its member states will be too diverse to make this practicable, much of the current cloud of uncertainty is dissipated, or will be when reality finally sinks in. However, understanding this and drawing the right conclusions, are frankly beyond the current display of garden gnomes we have as leaders. At some point though, in different ways in different countries, more realistic leaders will emerge, because they always do. We must hope that this does not take too long......A continent practising what used to be called “non-provocative defence” and using its armed forces as a way of preserving the greatest degree of sovereignty and independence, is a long way from the fever-dreams of our current political class, but it’s the only sensible way to go. In the past, that would have been sneeringly dismissed as “Finlandisation,” although in fact the Finns did quite well out of the policy. We now need to learn the rules of Finlandisation 2,0'.





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