Ian Proud - Ex British Moscow diplomat (who speaks fluent Russian) writes that after the demonstrations yesterday in Kiev objecting to Zelenskyy passing a law to 'control' investigations into corruption there may be a settlement sooner than we think. 

It seems to me that these demonstrations are ones promoted by 'the west' to demonise Zelenskyy as a pre-requisite for him being 'removed'. The US wants out but Zelenskyy refuses to back down from demands that are unacceptable to Russia. 

The problem is his 'heroic' status - so accusing him and his circle of 'corruption' is a sure-fire way of knocking him off his pedestal by demonising him as the first step to removing him. I have to say that while I think Zelenskyy is strategically stupid - he should have gone for the Minsk Accords but succombed to pressure from the nationalists - I have seen no evidence that he is corrupt. 

To me the most likely explanation is that Trump wants him to concede more to Russia to get a settlement and Zelenskyy is an obstacle to this - so they want rid of him. Trumps aim is to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing and settling the conflict in Ukraine is a pre-requisite for this.

 He VASTLY underestimates the Russians - and the Ukrainians. Zelenksyy will accuse 'the west' (ie the USA) of treachery (with a good deal of justification) and Europe will continue to support him. For Russia and China (and BRICS) this could not be more lovely. My guess is that the war will go on a bit yet - but I hope Ian Proud is right.

The demonstrations in Kiev encouraged Ian Proud to change his view within 24hours - in his article in 'Responsible Statecraft' he thought the war would go on until 2026 but with these demonstrations I think (like me) he smells a plot.


https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/predictably-there-was-no-progress?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=169121725&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ed69z&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

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